Small Wars Journal, whose archives I frequently used in college, has a great article on the upcoming rematch between the evil (Hamas) and the corrupt (Fatah) in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. I agree with their evaluation: Fatah might possibly reform itself, might possibly tiptoe the fine line between accepting Israeli and American help and being condemned for "collaborating," might be able to form a coherent security force, might be able to oust Hamas and restore some semblance of normalcy to the Palestinian territories.
I doubt it though. The New Republic article I cited June 28 is the more likely scenario. No matter what expatriate Palestinians might say, those living in the territories are broken down into clans, and organizations like Fatah only merit marginal allegiance. Hence, even when one group or another declares a cease-fire, attempted attacks on Israeli targets do not stop. If the Al-Aqsa brigades are off this week, Islamic Jihad would be happy to pick up the slack. That is, assuming that all the Al-Aqsa members got the memo.
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